Netflix Sets Sights on Doubling Revenue to Join the $1 Trillion Club

What do Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon have in common? Besides printing money faster than the U.S. Mint, they all belong to the ultra-exclusive $1 trillion club. And now, Netflix wants in. Yep, the same streaming service that started by mailing DVDs in red envelopes is now setting its sights on a $1 trillion market cap by 2030. That’s more than double its current $400 billion valuation. The plan? Double the revenue, triple the operating profits, and rake in $9 billion from ads. Bold? Absolutely. Realistic? Well, that depends on who you ask, and how much popcorn you’re willing to eat while watching this drama unfold.

From DVD Days to Digital Domination

To understand Netflix’s sky-high ambitions, let’s rewind a bit. Between 2019 and 2024, Netflix’s revenue almost doubled, from $20.16 billion to $39 billion. It thrived by pioneering original content, locking in viewers with hit shows like Stranger Things, and adapting quickly to global trends. It bet big on international expansion, password crackdown policies, and tiered subscriptions, including a $6.99/month ad-supported plan launched in late 2022. While some competitors like Disney+ and Apple TV+ still struggle to turn a profit, Netflix has already lapped them on the scoreboard. The company added over 41 million subscribers in 2024 alone, pushing its total beyond 300 million. It’s now targeting 410 million by 2030. Not too shabby.

Ads, Algorithms, and Ambitions

At a recent closed-door business review, Netflix executives dropped the big goals like mic drops: $78 billion in revenue, $30 billion in operating income, and $9 billion in ad sales by 2030. How? First, by supercharging its ad strategy. Netflix plans to ditch Microsoft’s ad tech and roll out its proprietary "Netflix Ads Suite" this month. More control means more money. New ad formats like “pause ads” and limited ad loads (just four minutes per hour) are part of the pitch to lure advertisers and keep users happy. Second, live events are entering the chat. Whether it's sports or buzzy awards shows, they force even premium subscribers to see commercials. It’s the kind of “watch it now or miss it forever” strategy linear TV used to master.

And internationally? Netflix is betting big on countries like India and Brazil, where internet access is booming. But don’t expect a cakewalk, lower revenue per user, and regulatory headaches looming large.

Did Trump’s Tariffs Throw a Wrench in the Plan?

With Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” and trade uncertainty back in play, many sectors are sweating bullets. Retail is down, apparel’s hurting, and the market’s been swinging like it’s had three espressos too many. Netflix, though? Surprisingly chill. Co-CEO Greg Peters said on the Q1 2025 earnings call that the economic headwinds haven’t rocked their boat. Their Q1 revenue hit $10.54 billion, narrowly beating Wall Street’s $10.51B expectations. EPS? A knockout $6.61, compared to $5.71 predicted.

Why resilience? Entertainment spending tends to be recession-proof. When the economy’s sour and date night becomes Netflix + microwave popcorn, subscriber engagement ticks up. Plus, that budget-friendly ad-supported tier gives penny-pinching users a reason to stick around.

The Trillion-Dollar Catch

All this optimism doesn’t mean it’s a slam dunk.

• Competition is fierce. Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, HBO Max, they’re all gunning for the same eyeballs and wallets. Unlike five years ago, Netflix no longer has the field to itself.
• Saturation is setting in. In markets like the U.S. and Europe, Netflix has already hit critical mass. Future growth must come from international markets with lower ARPU, unpredictable regulations, and, sometimes, government censorship.
• Costs are ballooning. Original content isn’t cheap (ask anyone who’s watched The Crown or 3 Body Problem). Keeping ahead of rivals means spending more, not less, making that goal of tripling operating income feels like a long shot.
• Ad revenue is fragile. Advertisers are the first to cut budgets when the economy hiccups. While Netflix’s ad biz is just getting started, it’s vulnerable—and needs flawless execution to hit that $9B target.
• Valuation concerns loom large. Netflix is already trading at a P/E ratio close to 50, compared to the industry average of 25. That’s a lot of optimism baked into the price. To get to $1 trillion, Netflix would need to grow at a 21% compound annual rate, while the broader media sector is expected to grow just 4%.

Loop Capital isn’t buying the dream just yet. Their 12-month price target? $1,000. Translation: investors may have already priced in the upside.

Lights, Camera, Tension

If Netflix does pull this off, it’ll be the first to make it to $1 trillion solely off streaming. That’s no small feat. But if it stumbles? It could become the poster child for big ambitions and bigger reality checks. For now, investors and industry watchers will be glued to April 17, when Netflix reports its Q1 earnings. While subscriber numbers are no longer being disclosed, ad momentum, retention rates, and international growth will offer key clues. Is Netflix writing a Hollywood ending, or setting up a sequel no one asked for? Stay tuned. Want sharper insights in less time? Subscribe to the MYCPE ONE Insights newsletter now.