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A Timeline of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Over the Years
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Subscribe01 APR 2025
Global economic uncertainty is soaring, rattling markets, stalling investment, and keeping policymakers, CEOs, and everyday investors on edge. At the heart of this turmoil is the U.S., where trade tensions and shifting policy signals are sending shockwaves across continents. The U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to levels 25% higher than during the peak of the first Trump Trade War, highlighting how deeply current policies are shaking global confidence. The immediate impact is undeniable. The S&P 500 has dropped 10.5% in just six weeks, wiping out over $3 trillion in market value—more than the combined GDP of France and the UK. Global indices aren’t faring much better: the FTSE 100 is down 8% YTD, Germany’s DAX has slipped nearly 9%, and Asia’s Nikkei 225 has lost over 7%. Meanwhile, from steel to whiskey to electronics, retaliatory tariffs continue to strain global supply chains.
Yet history offers perspective. After the 2020 uncertainty peak, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over 12 months. Following the 2009 spike, it gained +50.3%. While downturns occurred in 2001 and 2008, most uncertainty spikes have been followed by double-digit returns. In many cases, high policy uncertainty creates long-term buying opportunities for those who can look beyond the noise. As uncertainty spreads like a global contagion, understanding past patterns can help investors navigate what’s next—with strategy, not fear.
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