The Inflation Outlook

Welcome to myCPE

Reviewed

November, 2023

Learning Objectives

To analyze how inflation is measured, and why inflation sometimes feels higher than it is.
To explain how COVID-era policies have changed the short-term and long-term inflation outlook, and the difference between a peak in inflation and a peak in prices.
To discuss what causes inflation, and why the central bank does not need to ‘destroy demand’ to rein in inflation – but understand what it does need to do.
To explore how confusing micro-and macro- frames lead to erroneous conclusions about the causes of inflation.
To identify the important things to look for in the monthly CPI inflation report.

Course Description

Since the end of the 2020 COVID lockdowns, inflation has exploded into a problem that persistently influences many aspects of our lives as consumers and investors.

How did it happen? How long will it last? How will markets respond?

First, the instructor will discuss the measurement of inflation, including the major public measures of inflation, and will also explain why inflation often feels different (usually higher) than the reports say it is. In doing so, he will also explain why some critiques of the Consumer Price Index are wrong and will go into enough modest detail that students will have a framework with which to examine the monthly CPI report and look for clues.

The instructor will discuss different aspects of the current economic landscape, including fiscal, monetary, and administrative policy going into and coming out of the global pandemic. Components of the current inflation outlook are explained in detail, with expectations for the balance of 2022, 2023, and beyond explained. He will explain how shortages and price increases are related; the difference between a supply shock and demand shock and how businesses are responding and changing their business models in response to inflation, in ways that will render the inflation harder to extinguish.

A fair amount of discussion will involve contrasting monetary policy as currently practiced by central banks with monetary policy as previously practiced, with explicit analysis (and criticism where warranted). We will examine the concept of equilibrium nominal interest rates and equilibrium real rates, and why intuition based on microeconomic understandings sometimes leads observers – including central bankers – to erroneous conclusions.

Fully half of all Americans alive today were born after the last time we saw inflation this high. In this CPE Finance course, we will relearn the lessons of a generation and a half ago.

Overview

Classic inflation measures

3 mins
Some critiques of CPI

10 mins
Framework of CPI

16 mins
There is no mystery about where this inflation came from

28 mins
What happens when psychology shifts?

43 mins

Webinar Qualifies For

1 CPE Credit of Finance for Certified Public Accountants (CPA-US)
1 General Credit of Finance for Accountant/Bookkeeper/Tax Professionals
1 CPE Credit of Corporate Finance for Certified Management Accountants (CMA)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Certified Valuation Analyst (CVA)
1 CPD Credit of Finance for Accredited in Business Valuation (ABV)
1 CPD Credit of Personal Financial Planning for Personal Financial Specialist (PFS)
1 PL Credit of Economics for Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)
1 CPE Credit of Economics for Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Certified Government Financial Manager (CGFM)
1 CE Credit for Certified Treasury Professional (CTP)
1 CE Credit for Certified Wealth Strategist (CWS)
1 CPE Credit of Economics for Retirement Income Certified Professional (RICP)
1 CE Credit for Certified Fiduciary and Investment Risk Specialist (CFIRS)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Financial Services Certified Professional (FSCP)
1 CPE Credit of Economics for Wealth Management Certified Professional (WMCP)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Certified Business Appraiser (CBA)/Master Certified Business Appraiser (MCBA)
1 CE Credit of General finance principles and financial concepts for Certified FP&A Professional (FP&A)
1 CPE Credit of Economics for Chartered Advisor in Senior Living (CASL)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Iowa Licensed Public Accountant (IA-LPA)
1 PL Credit of Economics for CIPM
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Maine Licensed Public Accountant (ME-LPA)
1 CPE Credit of Finance for Delaware Licensed Public Accountant (DE-LPA)
1 CPE Credit of Economics for Chartered Special Needs Consultant (ChSNC)

About Instructor

Michael Ashton

, Enduring Investments LLC

Mr. Ashton is a pioneer in the U.S. inflation derivatives market. Prior to founding Enduring Investments, Mr. Ashton worked for several large investment banks as a relative value strategist and as an options and inflation trader. Since 2003, when he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps, and 2004 when he invented and was the lead market maker for the CME’s CPI Futures contract, he has played an integral role in developing new instruments and methods for accessing and hedging various inflation exposures.

Widely known by his trademarked moniker “the Inflation Guy,” Mr. Ashton is a frequent industry speaker and lecturer on inﬂation topics as well as an architect of inﬂation indexed products for hedging real exposures. He is the author of “Cents and Sensibility: The Inflation Guy Podcast,” thousands of blog posts and articles, and two books.

Mr. Ashton has a depth of experience and knowledge about inflation and the way inflation impacts markets that allows him to communicate this complex topic in easy-to-understand ways. It's this talent for explaining that have made him a regular and popular guest on Bloomberg TV, TD Ameritrade Network, and other television programs as well as on a variety of podcasts and numerous radio programs.

Mr. Ashton has worked for large, world-class organizations, but he is also an entrepreneur who founded Enduring Investments, a boutique inflation specialty firm which counts as clients everyone from white-shoe investment banks to low-income individual investors. He also consults on inflation topics for service and manufacturing concerns.

Additional Information

Duration

1 Hour

Course Level

Basic

Instructional Method

QAS Self Study

Pre-requisites

None

Advance Preparation

None

FAQ’s

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NASBA APPROVED

MY-CPE LLC, 1600 Highway 6 south, suite 250, sugar land, TX, 77478

MY-CPE LLC (Sponsor Id#: 143597) is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.NASBARegistry.org.

Ratings and Review

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Stephani Wagenschein, CFE, CPA (US)

Good informative session on Inflation - would have liked to have seen a presentation with less finance speak and have the concepts broken down a little more for clarity. I would like to understand more about inflation - this was a first step. :)